India
oi-Dr. Sandeep Shastri
Dr. Sandeep Shastri At the end of a hectic election campaign, all eyes on the evening of 7th March were on the exit poll results that were being flashed across television channels. There seemed to a common pattern in all the exit polls, though the intensity of the margins of victory projected for the winning party varied across the exit polls.
Three pointers were very evident in the projections. Firstly, the BJP was likely to retain power in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand and have an edge in Manipur with the battle going to the final finish line (and possibly beyond!) in Goa. Secondly, the AAP was set to come to power Punjab and thirdly the Congress had huge challenges before it across the states going to the polls.
If the projections of the exit polls were to become a reality on 10th of March, it is likely to set the trend for national politics as the countdown to the 2024 elections begins.
The projected BJP victory in Uttar Pradesh has wider political implications. It would be after a very long time that a ruling party has been voted back to power. While exit polls have differed on the extent of the majority the BJP is likely to get, its return to power seems a certainty if the exit polls are to be believed.
Those who project a slender majority for the BJP are budgeting for a tough fight between the BJP and the Samajwadi Party. Those who project a more comfortable margin assert that across regions, the BJP is way ahead of its rival.
What is clear is that governance and the law and order situation as perceived on the ground may have worked to the BJP’s advantage. One cannot discount the impact of the Prime Ministers campaign on behalf of his party. In every phase of elections there was a very calibrated campaign involving the presence of the Prime Minister with multiple road shows.
Being the state he is elected from to the Lok Sabha, winning this state was crucial to all BJP calculations for the Lok Sabha polls. The exit polls also appear to concede it was bi-polar race with the BSP and the Congress being very marginal players. Most exit polls project single digit numbers for the two parties.
This again has important implications for the politics of Uttar Pradesh as well as national trends in the days ahead.
Punjab seems to be at the cusp of a sweep. The Aam Admi Party seems to be comfortably romping home to victory. Here again exit polls differ on the extent of the majority the AAP is likely to get.
The ruling Congress seems to have lost the plot. The late change of Chief Ministers and the continued infighting in the party has clearly dented its image. The presence of a Dalit Chief Minister seems to have brought the Congress some advantage but seems insufficient to return them to power. The Shiromani Akali Dal led alliance seems to be paying the price for not taking an early stand on the farm laws.
The support of the influential Jat Sikhs appears to have significantly reduced. The BJP led alliance appears not to have found much support. This was conceded by the top BJP leadership when Amit Shah mentioned that the BJP would improve its position in Punjab but come to power in the other states. If the exit poll projections were to be accurate for Punjab, there are several implications. AAP would have truly heralded its political presence beyond Punjab and would be set to emerge as a potential challenger to the BJP in other state assembly elections that would be held before the Lok Sabha polls. It is important to underscore the fact that any gain for the AAP will be a loss for the Congress.
Uttarakhand seems to be a close fight and exit polls seem to project an advantage for the BJP. Two factors need to be underscored here. First, this would be the first time in the state that a ruling party has returned to power. Here too, the impact of the campaign led by the Prime Minister would be a crucial factor. This needs to be especially stressed in the light of the ruling party having changed its Chief Minister thrice in the last five years. Secondly, it is a clear impact of the infighting in the Congress and the inability of the party to strengthen the hand of Harish Rawat.
He seemed to be fighting a battle within his party as well as against the BJP. If the exit polls are accurate, the Congress seems to have once again lost an opportunity to challenge the ruling BJP in state level polls.
The exit poll trend in Manipur too seems to suggest a return of the BJP to power in the state. Once again, if the BJP does win in Manipur on 10th March it will be an indication of the assertive presence of the party in the North East. Here too there has been a well-planned strategy of political expansion in this region.
Goa seems to be a cliff-hanger and like last time the results may not be a predictor of who will form the government in the state! Exit polls seem to project a close flight between the BJP and the Congress with parties like the MGP, TMC and AAP being the potential key players. What will be watched in Goa, is how far will both the BJP and Congress be from the majority mark and who is able to strike a deal with smaller parties and MLA’s from those parties.
The message from the different exit polls is clear. A new ruling party is likely to assume office in Punjab and we may well have the status quo in UP, Uttarakhand and Manipur. If these trends are reflected in the electoral outcomes on 10th March, it is clearly an advantage for the BJP and a boost for the AAP to claim a leading space among the challengers to the BJP at the national level.
The party which will need to do serious soul searching is the Congress. It appears to be losing state after state and losing the appetite to challenge its principal rival.
(Dr. Sandeep Shastri is a keen student of Indian politics. Dr Shastri is a researcher on politics for the last four decades)
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are the personal opinions of the author. The facts and opinions appearing in the article do not reflect the views of OneIndia and OneIndia does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same.
Story first published: Wednesday, March 9, 2022, 8:43 [IST]