Quantum technology could eventually deliver transformative new capabilities with significant economic and national security impacts. Only recently has research and development (R&D) expanded beyond basic science research (primarily conducted within academia) to include significant private-sector development and commercialization. The newness of significant private-sector investment in this technology, and the high uncertainty in its eventual applications and their timelines, make it difficult to form a holistic assessment of the overall industrial base in quantum technology.
In this report, we develop a set of flexible and broadly applicable metrics for assessing a nation’s quantum industrial base, broadly defined, that attempt to quantify the strength of the nation’s scientific research, government activity, private industry activity, and technical achievement. We then apply those metrics to the United States and to the People’s Republic of China using a mixed-methods approach. The results for each metric are broken down across the three major application domains for quantum technology: quantum computing, quantum communications, and quantum sensing. We conclude with recommendations for policymakers for maintaining the strength of the U.S. quantum industrial base.
This research was sponsored by the Director for Technology and Manufacturing Industrial Base in the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Research and Engineering and conducted within the Acquisition and Technology Policy Center of the RAND National Security Research Division (NSRD).
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