With the JD(U) and the RLD having already walked out of its camp to join the ruling BJP-led NDA in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh respectively, the Opposition INDIA bloc is staring at another challenge: the Asaduddin Owaisi-led AIMIM, which is likely to contest multiple seats in these two crucial Hindi heartland states in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. Despite not being an INDIA constituent, the AIMIM is likely to draw minority voters, who form a critical support base for the alliance.
Sources said the AIMIM is planning to contest on as many as 20 seats in UP and about seven seats in Bihar. In the 2019 polls, the party had contested only one seat from the heartland, in Bihar.
The AIMIM will also enter the fray in Maharashtra — where it could foray into Mumbai and Marathwada — as well as Telangana where besides its home turf Hyderabad, it may also contest from Secunderabad. The party, however, is unlikely to contest in the TMC-ruled West Bengal, where it had fielded candidates in the 2021 Assembly polls.
“We will fight in Hyderabad (Telangana), Aurangabad (Maharashtra) and Kishanganj (Bihar) for sure. Our Bihar unit wants to fight on more seats. In UP too, there are similar demands. In Maharashtra, there is a call to fight from Mumbai and Marathwada. We will soon decide how many seats we are going to fight,” Owaisi told The Indian Express.
The AIMIM currently has two seats in the Lok Sabha, represented by Owaisi (Hyderabad) and Imtiaz Jaleel (Aurangabad). In 2019, Akhtar-ul-Iman, the AIMIM candidate from Kishanganj, had polled almost 3 lakh votes, coming third behind the Congress and the JD(U) candidates. Kishanganj was the only seat in Bihar out of 40 that the Congress-RJD alliance had won in 2019. The AIMIM will again field Akhtar-ul-Iman from the seat.
The AIMIM’s plans are causing a worry for the Opposition grouping since its Lok Sabha election strategy depends significantly on the minority votes in north India, which it is hoping to consolidate.
Although the AIMIM had not fielded any candidates in UP in 2019, it had done well in local body polls in the state in 2017, securing 32 seats. And even though the party did not win any seat in the 2022 UP Assembly polls, the votes it had polled in more than 10 seats were more than the margin of defeat for the SP candidates there.
The AIMIM’s bid to enter Mumbai and Marathwada, around 12% of whose population is Muslim, would also be a concern for the INDIA bloc.
Similarly in Bihar, the AIMIM has done well in the Seemanchal region, which has a significant Muslim population. In the last state Assembly polls, the party had won five seats, although four of its MLAs later defected to the RJD, one reason why the party has stayed away from joining the Opposition alliance in the state.
“In Bihar, the RJD is with INDIA. The RJD took four of our MLAs. So, there is no question of an alliance with them. Why AIMIM is not with INDIA is something only INDIA can answer. They have already formed an elite club. Its membership is reserved for the elite. They have been abusing us since the very beginning,” Owaisi told The Indian Express.
The AIMIM’s Bihar spokesperson Adil Hasan said that apart from Kishanganj, the party wishes to contest in Katihar, Purnea, Araria, Darbhanga, Madhubani and Gaya, and is in talks with the BSP for an alliance. “The list has been sent to Barrister Sahab (Owaisi). He will take a call. We want to have an alliance with the BSP. We are like-minded parties and have fought together in 2020,” he said.
In UP, the party’s spokesperson Shaukat Ali said, “We had sent overtures to all Opposition parties, including the SP and the BSP, but did not hear from them. We have made a proposal to contest 20 seats in UP and sent it to Owaisi Sahab. The seats we are interested in include Sambhal, Moradabad, Amroha, Bijnor, Saharanpur, Kanpur and Jaunpur.”
Ali said the “secular parties” consider the Muslim leadership as “untouchable”. “They want our votes, but not our leadership. Today, both the SP and the Congress are vying for Muslim votes. They fear that if there is an alliance, we will emerge stronger and they will lose their vote base,” he said.
In Telangana, AIMIM sources said, the party is likely to maintain its understanding with the BRS, but is under pressure from its cadre to contest the Secunderabad seat, which is held by state BJP chief and Union minister G Kishan Reddy.