Illegally manufactured potent artificial opioids (IMPSO) like fentanyl have contributed to rises in overdose deaths in components of North America and Europe. Whereas many of those substances are produced in Asia, there’s little proof they’ve entered markets there. We think about the susceptibility to IMPSO’s encroachment in markets within the Asia-Pacific area.
Our evaluation focuses on Australia, China, India, and Myanmar. Utilizing a mixed-methods strategy comprising interviews, literature overview, and secondary information analyses, we study elements facilitating or impeding incursion of IMPSO. Lastly, we illustrate the potential for IMPSO fatalities in Australia.
Australia stories some indicators of three facilitating elements to IMPSO’s emergence: 1) current illicit opioid markets, 2) disruption of opioid provide, and three) person preferences. The opposite three international locations report solely current illicit opioid markets. Whereas diverted pharmaceutical opioids are a famous drawback in Australia and India, heroin is the dominant opioid in all 4 international locations. There are divergent tendencies in heroin use, with use declining in China, growing in India, and secure in Australia and Myanmar. If IMPSO subtle in Australia as in North America from 2014 to 2018, and our assumptions usually maintain, deaths from IMPSO may vary from 1500–5700 over a five-year interval.
This evaluation and illustrative calculations function an early indication for policymakers. Apart from Australia, many international locations within the area fail to correctly report overdose deaths or monitor modifications in native drug markets. Early evaluation and monitoring may give officers a greater understanding of those altering threats.
This report is a part of the RAND Company exterior publication sequence. Many RAND research are printed in peer-reviewed scholarly journals, as chapters in business books, or as paperwork printed by different organizations.
The RAND Company is a nonprofit establishment that helps enhance coverage and decisionmaking by analysis and evaluation. RAND’s publications don’t essentially replicate the opinions of its analysis purchasers and sponsors.
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