China Energy | Politics | East Asia
Xinjiang Get together Secretary Chen Quanguo will seemingly see a promotion on the 2022 Communist Get together Congress, maybe to vice premier.
On this file picture taken Tuesday, March 12, 2019, Chen Quanguo, Communist Get together secretary of China’s Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Area, attends a bunch dialogue assembly on the sidelines of China’s Nationwide Folks’s Congress (NPC) on the Nice Corridor of the Folks in Beijing.
Credit score: AP Photograph
Notorious for iron-fisted insurance policies directed at China’s ethnic and non secular minority border areas in Tibet and Xinjiang, Chen Quanguo might have already been promoted sooner and is probably going in line for a strong promotion in 2022. Having honed his ethnic affairs abilities in Tibet, Chen was deployed to Xinjiang to affirm Chinese language Communist Get together supremacy over inhabitants facilities forward of their growth into import hubs for the Belt and Highway coverage. Typically characterised by Western media as a marketing campaign in opposition to Uyghur Muslims, the Xinjiang coverage just isn’t anti-Muslim at its core however quite is extra acutely a marketing campaign in opposition to ethnic minorities. The identical coverage rules have been deployed in opposition to Buddhist Tibet and Interior Mongolia, and in Xinjiang any notional enchantment to a rhetorical reactionary response to Uyghur Islamic separatism must be dispelled by ethnic Kazakhs, Kyrgyz, and others being caught up in the identical marketing campaign.
Xinjiang governance has been extra akin to a praetorate than a celebration place. Nonetheless, whereas Xinjiang is a province with looser governance buildings, it has maybe probably the most clearly developed provincial coverage structure. Chen inherited the coverage buildings of the Second Central Xinjiang Work Symposium after which led by means of the third such symposium, which was held in September 2020. This supplied a brand new governance framework by means of which to set the coverage agenda for the approaching interval. These Xinjiang work symposia are haphazard coverage engagements, not formalized into institutional time durations just like the five-year plans in financial steering or ten-year time period limits in state governance positions. The earlier Second Central Xinjiang Work Symposium, which was meant to run from 2014-2018, was merely prolonged with out formal coverage growth and we had been anticipating the Third Symposium for an additional two years after that. And after two profitable excursions of ethnic responsibility repressing campaigns – first in Tibet, adopted by his present extra high-profile place in Xinjiang – Chen is prone to be rewarded with a straightforward Beijing posting after the equal of a hostile overseas affairs posting.
Frequent amongst the present cohort of Central Get together leaders, Chen’s early profession was marked by a capability to keep away from the tail-end of the Cultural Revolution. All the present technology of ministerial degree cadres principally had the beginnings of their schooling delayed, however largely prevented any of the actual private destruction of the interval. Chen survived his transition into maturity not by means of an early get together appointment however by means of navy service, becoming a member of the First Military, Third Division Artillery Regiment. The First Military is a core Jap Theater Command with an extended historical past unbroken till the 2017 navy area reorganization. Chen later constructed employee credentials in an auto elements manufacturing facility, earlier than finding out political economic system after which starting a CCP profession.
Chen’s get together experiences oscillated between govt department positions and the executive department. Chen first took an govt get together function within the Zhumadian Prefectural Committee, then entered the executive stream within the Coverage Analysis Workplace in the identical prefecture for 3 years, then went again to get together govt in Suiping County for 4 years. He was later concurrently a member of the Pingdingshan Municipal Get together Committee Standing Committee (govt) and director of Henan Province Group Division (administrative). He then took a straightforward mayoral place in Luohe whereas he studied for an MBA diploma in Wuhan, after which took a state appointment as vice governor of Henan Province for 2 years. He then sat across the prime of Henan get together positions on the Provincial Get together Committee and Group Division whereas finding out for a Ph.D. in administration, after which his political ascent to the central CCP started.
This mixture of govt and administrative functionary makes him an ideal cadre to workers greater ranges of get together organs and the Politburo in addition to a reliable remoted particular person operator within the borderland provincial positions he later took in Tibet and Xinjiang. Chen was governor of Hebei, a state place, for 3 years, earlier than being moved again to govt as Tibet get together secretary for 5 years. And from 2016 he was moved to Xinjiang as get together secretary and first political commissar of the Xinjiang Manufacturing and Building Corps. Chen was formally inducted into the 25-member Politburo in 2017, the place he can have been for 5 years come the 2022 Get together Congress.
Chen is sort of sure to realize a promotion again to the middle however solely has an outdoor likelihood to climb into one of many Politburo Standing Committee seats. Chen might return to CCP administrative positions equivalent to head of the Group Division, Propaganda Division, or of the Nationwide Supervisory Fee. He’s already a Politburo member that means a ministerial-level appointment to run the United Entrance Work Division can be a demotion. Whereas get together positions would swimsuit Chen’s character and profession higher, Xi has spent two phrases stacking the state positions with extra party-minded acolytes. Thus, whereas Chen might transfer sideways into one of many CCP positions, it’s extra seemingly he’ll go right into a state place. The plain state positions he might take can be the third or fourth vice premier of the State Council. The next promotion than third vice premier is unlikely given Chen’s lack of expertise throughout different coverage areas.
Up to date coverage and governance in Xinjiang and the CCP executives who function there are pushed by what the get together needs from the jurisdiction and the general public administration realities imply that get together executives should understand quantifiable coverage targets. To take the recognized danger of Western media backlash in opposition to the Xinjiang focus camps, there should even be a recognized get together objective price taking this danger for. Xinjiang, Tibet, Interior Mongolia, and Ningxia have been left alone as a CCP coverage testing grounds for many years. Now there’s a main geoeconomic use for Xinjiang and each provincial governance and coverage is altering.
Whomever inherits the Xinjiang get together secretary place from Chen although will stroll right into a job principally full, with a hardline coverage prescription already enacted. The coverage inheritance for the get together is now consolidation quite than coverage innovation, and the politician who enabled this variation can be promoted into the protection of the middle.